Without substantial cuts in fossil fuel use, the world is on track for a 1.8-degree Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit) increase in temperature, a new United Nations report warns. Even if countries meet all promised climate actions, warming is expected to stay above the Paris Agreement’s target, reaching 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 Fahrenheit) by 2100, according to the annual Emissions Gap Report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The report states that only the most optimistic scenario, which involves stringent emission cuts, holds a slim 23% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Since the mid-1800s, the global temperature has already risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit), factoring in last year’s record heat. The world is now on a path to reach 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 Fahrenheit) without immediate and extensive action.
UNEP climate advisor Anne Olhoff emphasized that actions within this decade are critical. Without dramatic changes, the goal of 1.5 degrees will become unattainable by 2029. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change,” noted Neil Grant of Climate Analytics.
Despite commitments, 20 of the world’s wealthiest countries — responsible for 77% of emissions — fall short of pledged targets, with only 11 countries meeting individual goals. The report suggests emissions could be curbed to reach the 1.5-degree target, yet meaningful steps are still lacking.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of the link between rising emissions and increasingly severe climate disasters, stating that time for action is running out: “We’re out of time.”
